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On May 25-26, the Palestinian political factions held a
National Dialogue initiated by the president, Mahmud Abbas, Abu Mazen. Since
the Hamas victory in the January elections and the boycott of the Palestinian
National Authority by the United
States, Europe and Israel, Palestinian society has fallen
into a chaos on the verge of a civil war. The objective of the National Dialogue
was to avoid a civil war that neither Hamas nor Fatah desire.
However, a
successful dialogue leading to political consensus following the prisoners’
National Conciliation Document would have posed additional difficulties for
Olmert’s “convergence” plan.
The plan has no support in the Israeli society-
according to a public opinion pool published by Haaretz on June 9, 65% of the Israeli
public oppose it. Also, the Unites
States and Europe prefer a negotiated
agreement between Israel and
the Palestinian Authority rather than a unilateral move by Israel.
Finally, Olmert’s convergence also faces the 16th
month of a Hamas ceasefire that has the power to undermine Israel’s attempt
to delay indeterminately negotiations with the Palestinian Authority. While the
US and Europe stand firm on boycotting the Hamas government, they
support negotiations with the Palestinian president’s office. Moreover, the
humanitarian intervention policies adopted by the European Council in May of 2006
can potentially diffuse and weaken the boycott.
According to a document published by the Israeli Reut
Institute for Policy Planning, the differentiation between humanitarian aid, which the Council of Europe decided to continue, and budgetary support to the
Palestinian Authority, which it decided to end, is confusing and impractical.
The Reut Institute document that was published in Globes, 28-29 of March, stresses
that some of the humanitarian aid actually covers budgetary items, such as
clinics and schools, and some of the aid is even covering PA
expenses, such as salaries for teachers and other PA employees.
Therefore, the escalation of internal Palestinian violence, as well as of
confrontations with Israeli troops, is in the interest of the Israeli government. This policy has been implemented by the Israeli
army since the Palestinian elections and is reflected in the number of
Palestinian causalities. According to the Palestinian Red Crescent Society, in
February 2006, the month of the PLC elections, 29 Palestinians were killed and
153 were injured by the Israeli army. In April, the number rises to 31 Palestinians killed and
126 injured; in May, 42 were killed and 220 injured; and in the first two weeks of June, 34 Palestinians were killed.
The increase of violence by Israeli forces, including especially
the June 8 assassination of Jamal Abu Samahadana, a general director at the Palestinian
Ministry of Interior and one of the few personalities that could help engineer a ceasefire amid internal Palestinian strife, and the June 9 assassination of the
Ghalia family at the Bet Laquia beach, further worsened the social
impact of the boycott against the PA, leading Hamas to declare an end to the 16-month
ceasefire. All opportunities to restore the ceasefire ended with the Israeli Air Force attack on Gaza City on June 13. The question now facing Hamas is whether the military resistance should limit itself to the
Palestinian Occupied Territories, as prefered by the Hamas leadership in Palestine, or expand beyond the Green Line, as
demanded by the leadership in Damascus.
While the new military escalation may cause Israeli
causalities, it will reinforce the Israeli government's position that
there exists no Palestinian partner for peace. More dangerously, the current
escalation may allow the Israeli Army to attempt a one-time operation aimed at
ending Hamas. According to the June 13 Yediot Aharonot, Israeli Prime
Minister, Ehud Olmert, hinted that Ismail Haniah may be a target for
assassination.
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