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Muhamad Dahlan’s failed military takeover in June put an end
to seven years of Israeli unilateralism in the region. This resulted in the
creation of two Palestinian governments, one headed by Hamas and one by Fatah,
both claiming legitimacy, and an agreement from the Fatah militias in the West
Bank to disarm. With this as the present context, the peace process was back on
the local and international agendas.
At the moment, there are two propositions on the peace negotiations
table. The Arab League calls for Israel
to receive full recognition from all Arab states in exchange for a withdrawal
to the pre-1967 boundaries and an agreed solution to the refugee problem. Israel offers a phased negotiation towards a Palestinian State
on ninety percent of the West Bank, with the
right to annex the major settlement blocks.
The Palestinian Authority, headed by President Mahmud Abbas
has no proposition so far.
In order to promote the Arab Initiative, Egyptian Foreign
Minister Ahmed Abdul Gheit and Jordanian Foreign Minister Abdelelah al-Khatib,
members of the Arab League Initiative Supervisory Committee, arrived on Wednesday,
25 July on an official visit to Israel.
“We
hope that upon our return, we would also convey to the Arab League the
responses of Israel
and I hope that the responses will be positive,” Aboul Gheit said at a news
conference on 25 June.
During a meeting with the Arab League representatives
on 26 June, Prime Minister Olmert said that Israel and the PA “have begun a
process of dialogue that will naturally also lead to negotiations with the PA
on the main issues that will enable the establishment of a Palestinian state.”
He was referring to a newly proposed, phased peace
plan, similar in content to the Oslo
peace process. According to a report published on Haaretz newspaper on 25
July, Olmert is offering President Abbas to hold negotiations toward an “Agreement
of Principles” for the establishment of a Palestinian state on most of the
territory of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
Olmert’s proposes first to discuss issues that are
relatively easy for the two sides to agree upon and to begin negotiations on
the characteristics of the Palestinian state, its official institutions, its
economy, and the customs arrangement it will have with Israel.
Following the path of the Oslo’s Declaration of Principles (DOP), after
an “Agreement of Principles,” the two sides will tackle the more sensitive
diplomatic issues, like final borders and the transit arrangements.
Olmert believes this is not the time to deal with
the minute details of the agreement, because it will be very difficult to reach
agreement on final status issues, such as borders, Jerusalem and the refugees. The same issues
were left also in the Oslo DOP for the final negotiations.
The likely principles that Olmert will offer as part of the
agreement will be the establishment of a Palestinian state comprising about 90
percent of the territory of the West Bank and
in the Gaza Strip. These are the same territories Olmert
proposed Israel
will evacuate unilaterally, and withdraw to the separation fence.
In addition, Olmert may propose an exchange of
territory to compensate for the large settlement blocs that will remain under
Israeli control in the West Bank and to connect the West
Bank and the Gaza Strip through a tunnel in order to offer the
Palestinians territorial contiguity, prevent friction between Israelis and
Palestinians, and preserve security.
Israel will request territorial compensation for the digging of a tunnel in
its sovereign territory.
The Palestinians will be able to declare Jerusalem
their capital that will include the Arab neighborhoods of East
Jerusalem which have never been considered part of the historical
city. The Old City,
its environs and the Mount of Olives would remain in Israel’s control.
The Arab League
initiative is an attempt to answer the main issues of the conflict, namely an Israeli
retreat from the territories it has occupied since 1967, the creation of a
Palestinian state and a solution for the Palestinian refugees. But Israel
is proposing to return to an interim process that will answer none of the
territorial and demographic issues at hand.
On the opposite
end, Israel
proposes to delay, yet again, issues which they repeatedly delayed for thirteen
years already, since September 1993. Moreover, Israel proposes a return to square
one, to endless negotiations without restrictions on its colonization policies
or on the implementation of an apartheid regime.
The most
dangerous aspect of the Israeli proposition is that in order to return to the
negotiations, Palestinians have to accept a state divided by settlement blocks.
On the other
side, the answer to the Israeli proposition is not anymore in the hands of
Dahlan, who resigned on 26 July, or Abbas and Fayyad, who have accepted Israeli
military and political supremacy, but in the hands of the Palestnian resistance
and the popular movements.
Dahlan’s failed
coup d’etat created the condition for the Israeli initiative, but it did not defeat
the forces of Palestinian national resistance either in Gaza
or in the West Bank.
Therefore, Israel’s
military support for the Palestinian Authority continues.
According to a report published by Haaretz
on 26 June, Israel
authorized the transfer of 1,000 M-16 rifles from Jordan
to the security forces of the Palestinian Authority in the West
Bank. According to other Israeli sources, 3,000 M-16 rifles were
transferred.
The weapons were delivered to the PA
security forces three weeks ago following Israeli authorization, and kept under
strict confidence on both sides in an effort to prevent any possible leak that
could undermine Abbas’ standing.
This is the largest arms transfer authorized in recent years,
and it is meant to aid forces loyal to Abbas in its struggle against Hamas and
the Palestinian popular movement.
Earlier this year, several thousand rifles were delivered to
Fatah forces in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank,
but most of those arms came under Hamas’ control following Dahlan’s military
failure.
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