A number of Israeli soldiers refused to serve in the first Lebanon war, sparking media coverage and a nationwide debate that sent hundreds of thousands of Israelis into the streets to protest its government's aggression. Will an Israeli attack on Iran see the refuseniks rise again?

Israeli soldiers (photo: flickr/Santosh Dawara)

According to several un-official sources, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, does indeed intend to open a military strike against Iran, despite the warnings of Israeli senior security officials, the French Prime Minister, and the USadministration. While Barak might be intent on proceeding with such madness, questions are often raised, however, about soldiers' willingness to participate in an attack on Iran.

In 1982, when Ariel Sharon initiated a war in Lebanon, the political objectives of that war – described by Prime Minister Menachem Begin as Israel's first "war of choice" – provoked disobedience throughout the army's ranks. Hundreds of soldiers refused to cross the border. Many among them were sentenced to several weeks' detention in military prisons.

Such a phenomenon was a revolution in Israeli political culture: Until 1982, the army was holy, and, with the exception of half a dozen individuals, no one had dared to challenge the duty to serve. The Lebanese war, however, lacked legitimacy to the extent that it provoked the first "refusenik" movement in Israel. Moreover, the fact that soldiers and officers were sent to jail was widely reported by the Israeli media, sparking a public debate with the mainstream peace movement. This discussion gained traction throughout Israeli society and resulted in a 400,000 strong protest against the war. 

If Israel strikes Iran--embarking on yet another "war of choice"--will soldiers refuse? Will there be widespread dissent? Will Israelis take to the streets again like they did in 1982?

I have serious doubts.

The refusenik movement was a movement of reserve soldiers at a time when the Israeli army was essentially an army of reservists. A reservist is a civilian in uniform and reserve battalions were characterized by personal commitment much more than traditional military discipline. This was the strength of the Israeli army, but, as the national consensus has broken down, it has also proven to be its achilles heel.

The present Israeli army is very different, its heart much less the reserve battalions and more the draftee's brigades. For young draftees, refusing to obey is more difficult: Discipline is much harder, and the price paid for refusing an order is higher. Moreover, politicized youth often choose not to serve by finding ways to be released from their military duties. Due to the fact that the army has become a lot bigger than its operational needs, the army is ready to release "low motivated" future soldiers, provided that the young draftees opt out in a personal, discrete way and not as a public, political step. 

This is why I believe that a refusenik movement--like the one that sparked media attention and nationwide debate at the beginning of the first Lebanon War--has a limited future as compared to the "grey refuseniks," young Israelis who try to get out of army duty without confronting the military establishment head-on.